With promises of tens of billions of dollars in investment<\/a>, the Chinese strategy, if realised, could reshape the former Soviet economies of central Asia<\/a>, which have been battered by falling commodity prices and recession in Russia.<\/p>\n But increasing economic dependence on China at a time of uncertainty over the health of its economy<\/a> is not universally popular in the central Asian states. And the launch of a regional integration drive has put Beijing on a collision course with Moscow, which has been lobbying countries to join its Eurasian Economic Union. It also raises the stakes for Beijing: as China invests more in this fragile region bordering Afghanistan, it is finding it harder to resist being drawn into political and military affairs.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is China\u2019s inadvertent empire. It\u2019s a part of the world where they are clearly becoming the most significant geopolitical player,\u201d says Raffaello Pantucci, a specialist on the region at the Royal United Services Institute. \u201cI don\u2019t think they\u2019ve given consideration to what that means in the longer term.\u201d<\/p>\n Echoes of ancient camel bells<\/strong><\/p>\n Two years ago, Mr Xi stood in Kazakhstan\u2019s futuristic capital of Astana and invoked the memory of Zhang Qian, the diplomat who helped open China\u2019s trade with the world in the 2nd century BC.<\/p>\n \u201cAs I stand here and look back at that episode of history, I could almost hear the camel bells echoing in the mountains and see the wisp of smoke rising from the desert,\u201d the Chinese leader said. Describing Kazakhstan as a \u201cmagic land\u201d, he called for the creation of a new \u201ceconomic belt\u201d along the old trade routes.<\/p>\n \u201cThe ancient Silk Road has gained fresh vitality,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Others see parallels with a more recent period in history: the tussle for influence between the Russian and British empires in the 19th century. As China expands its influence in parts of the former Soviet Union, central Asia could become the focus of a new \u201cGreat Game\u201d between Beijing, Moscow and possibly Iran, Turkey and western countries.<\/p>\n But as western interest in the region recedes with the military drawdown from Afghanistan, and Russia\u2019s ability to invest is curtailed by its own economic recession, the Great Game in the region may turn out to be one-sided. Over the past two decades China has quietly become the pre-eminent economic power in the region; now many central Asian governments greet the prospect of Chinese investment as their last chance to stave off a downturn that could threaten political stability.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Trade between China and the five post-Soviet central Asian states \u2014 Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan \u2014 has risen from $1.8bn in 2000 to $50bn in 2013, according to IMF data, before dropping slightly amid the decline in commodity prices. That means China has surpassed Russia in recent years to become the region\u2019s single largest trade partner.<\/p>\n \u201cIf you look at investment needs in the region, then Chinese participation is very important to say the least,\u201d says Agris Preimanis, central Asia economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, a major western investor in the region. \u201cThey are increasingly active in all sectors and you just cannot see western capital or Russian capital taking their place.\u201d<\/p>\n In Kazakhstan, Chinese companies own somewhere between one-fifth and one-quarter of the country\u2019s oil production \u2014 about the same proportion as the national oil company. In Turkmenistan, holder of the world\u2019s fourth-largest gas reserves, China has replaced Russia\u2019s Gazprom as the dominant buyer of Turkmen gas, accounting for 61 per cent of exports last year. Much of that shift is thanks the Central Asia-China gas pipeline, opened in 2009, which provides the region\u2019s energy-rich economies with a major export route not controlled by Moscow. In the region\u2019s poorer countries, China has also become an economic power. Chinese companies have invested in oil refineries and cement plants in Kyrgyzstan<\/a> and Tajikistan, and in roads and tunnels across the region.<\/p>\n Data on the scale of Chinese investment are sketchy, as much is done at a bilateral level between Chinese state banks, such as China Development Bank or China Eximbank, and central Asian governments or state companies.<\/p>\n But in one example, the Tajik deputy finance minister last year told the FT that Beijing would invest $6bn in Tajikistan<\/a> over the next three years \u2014 a figure equivalent to two-thirds of the country\u2019s annual gross domestic product.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"http:\/\/docs.uyghuramerican.org\/images\/chinese-trade-with-ca.jpg\")
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